The Decarbonization Paradox: The Last 20% Is the Hardest
Most organizations don't fail at decarbonization because they lack ideas. They fail because the remaining emissions are tied to infrastructure, chemistry, and long-lived assets.
By Koorosh Behrang • • 10 min read
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~50 Mt
CO₂/yr capture capacity operating
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~430 Mt
projected capacity by 2030
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~60%
pipeline at advanced stages
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Two Different Tools for Two Different Problems |
Carbon capture and carbon removal are frequently conflated — but they address fundamentally different stages of the emissions problem. Understanding the distinction matters for strategy, project economics, and long-term planning.
Carbon Capture (CCUS)Preventing emissions from leaving the asset Separates CO₂ from a concentrated stream at a facility — before release — then moves it for permanent storage or use. • Combustion sources: boilers, furnaces, gas power |
Carbon Removal (CDR)Balancing what you cannot eliminate Extracts CO₂ from the atmosphere — directly or indirectly — and stores it durably. Not about cleaning up a smokestack; about balancing residual emissions. • DACCS: Direct Air Capture + Storage |
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How They Work — Without the Textbook |
The Capture Value Chain (CCUS)
Separate CO₂ → condition it → move it → store it permanently (or use it in a way that doesn't re-emit it).
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Capture
Solvents, membranes, sorbents
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Compression & Transport
Pipeline or ship at scale
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Geological Storage
Deep formations, permanent
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MRV & Stewardship
Monitoring, verification
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Capture draws on solvents, membranes, sorbents, cryogenic separation, or process-integrated approaches (sector-dependent). At scale, compression and transport move via pipeline or ship. Geological storage is placed in deep formations with monitoring, verification, and long-term stewardship.
The Removal Loop (CDR)
Pull CO₂ from air → prove you did it → store it durably.
Key Insight
Removal is less about the separation chemistry (which is hard) and more about building a credible system around energy supply, permanence, MRV, contracting, and storage governance. The technology is only one piece of the investment case.
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Why These Technologies Show Up Late in Real Decarbonization Roadmaps |
There is a practical sequencing that most executives recognize when they see it on one page. Capture and removal are not "Plan A" because they are typically capex-heavy, infrastructure-dependent, and require strong MRV and permitting certainty.
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Low-Cost Wins Operational efficiency & waste elimination Energy efficiency, waste heat recovery, maintenance & controls tightening, electrify what's already electric-ready. |
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Mid-Cost Structural Shifts Electrification, fuel switching, process improvements Electrification where feasible, fuel switching, process redesign where economics allow. |
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High-Cost Residual Solutions Capture, removals, or full process redesign Carbon capture at the asset, CDR (DACCS/BECCS) for residual balancing, full process redesign when cheaper options are exhausted. |
When CCUS & CDR Become Plan A
When cheaper levers no longer move the needle enough, the asset must still operate, and the organization is serious about meeting absolute targets — these are no longer optional additions to the roadmap.
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Global CCUS in 2025: Scaling Is Real, Execution Is the Bottleneck |
The IEA's latest update shows a market moving beyond "announcements" into maturation — but still not at the pace implied by net-zero pathways.
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~50 Mt
CO₂/yr capacity operating as of Q1 2025
IEA • April 2025
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~430 Mt
Achievable by 2030 if trajectories hold
IEA • April 2025
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~80%
Near-term capacity in North America or Europe
IEA • April 2025
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The pipeline is more credible than in prior cycles — roughly 60% of overall project volume now sits at advanced stages (FEED or under construction). The world is not short of CCUS concepts. What it lacks:
• Bankable offtake and revenue certainty
• Permitted transport and storage networks
• Repeatable project delivery models (hubs)
• Capital discipline that survives commodity and policy cycles
Strategic Implication
The infrastructure story — transport and storage hubs — matters as much as capture equipment. Project economics and project access are inseparable.
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A Canada Lens: Storage, Infrastructure, and Investability |
Canada's national strategy frames carbon capture and storage as part of the solution set for industrial decarbonization, clean fuels and hydrogen, long-term competitiveness in emissions-intensive sectors, and enabling durable pathways where electrification is constrained.
But the strategic message underneath is more important: capture and storage only scale when the full system is investable — technology, infrastructure, MRV, and policy alignment working together. No single element closes the investment case alone.
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Turning "CCUS Ambition" into a Financeable Pathway |
Most corporate plans treat CCUS and CDR like static line items: "CCUS in 2032," "removals in 2040," "assume cost down." That approach breaks when the organization hits three hard questions:
• When do we stop chasing incremental efficiency and commit to deep decarbonization capex?
• Under what carbon price, incentive, and energy-price conditions does CCUS cross the investment hurdle?
• What is the least-cost pathway to address residual emissions — capture, removals, or process redesign — and when?
TerraNova's role is to answer these with decision-grade economics, not slogans.
Dynamic MACCsAbatement curves that evolve as cheaper options saturate, energy prices change, carbon prices tighten, incentives step down, and timelines shift. |
Policy-Aware EconomicsIncentive stacks (tax credits, ITCs, grants, CfDs), compliance value (ETS/OBPS/TIER/CFR), and delivery risk modelled into NPV/IRR outputs. |
Removals StrategyRemovals strategy explicit about durability and MRV, aligned with residual emissions forecasts, integrated into long-term cost curves. |
The Output
A decarbonization roadmap that doesn't just say "CCUS is important" — but shows when it becomes rational, what makes it investable, and how it competes against alternatives across time.
References
IEA, CCUS projects around the world are reaching new milestones (Commentary, April 30, 2025). Natural Resources Canada, Canada's Carbon Management Strategy.
Need Help Building a CCUS or CDR Investment Case?
Climate Decode's TerraNova platform turns policy and carbon pricing into portfolio-grade decarbonization sequencing — from dynamic MACCs to finance-ready project economics.
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About the Author Koorosh BehrangFounder, Climate Decode Koorosh leads Climate Decode's market intelligence platform, working at the intersection of carbon markets, industrial decarbonization, and corporate compliance strategy. |
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